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Where Is My Mind?, Pixies

Table of Contents

• What Can I Say?

  • 1. Global trade will shift away from the US.

  • 2. We don’t yet truly understand financial uncerta …

  • 3. DOGE is the Ministry of Culture.

  • Next Steps

• This Week: Veto Session Begins

What Can I Say?

Honestly, it’s hard to find any useful words for the moment that haven’t already been written over the past 72 hours. Capitol Bee, ostensibly, is about local and state-level politics here in Kansas, but it’s easy for it to feel irrelevant in the wake of the self-inflicted implosion of markets, economies, global trading partners, 401(k) and pension retirement savings, et al. It is the DOGE-ification of all things.

Instead, let me offer you some affirmations of how you’re feeling.

• Yes, global stock markets fell 10% in two days. $5 trillion in wealth was destroyed, and the damage appears likely to continue.

• Yes, 500,000 to 1 million people protested the Trump administration last weekend. Including thousands here in Kansas.

• Yes, economists 👏 worldwide 👏 are 👏 freaking 👏 out.

• Yes, Trump went golfing to relax.

(If you’d like to drown in market numbers, you can check your angst against these stock market tickers: $SPY ( ▲ 2.15% ) , $DIA ( ▼ 0.49% ) , $QQQ ( ▲ 0.51% ) )

I’ve been accused before of cynical melodrama. (Remember Intended Consequences, anyone? Don’t worry, I’m wrapping up the series soon!) I am trying to stay measured and rational in my personal response to the moment, and also in how I might counsel any of you as to how to think about things¹ . Before I do that, though, let me first share a few quotes from other larger thinkers.

We saw a press conference where generational enemies China, Japan, and South Korea signed a joint statement of unification about global trade policy. You’re witnessing the rapid disassembly of an 80-year-standing global trade and power regime, where virtually every past promise made by the American government to its international allies (and foes) is now suspect and the safest strategic choice any country not the USA would be to cut bait.

It is one thing to be “living through history.” It is quite another to feel the instability of the earth and listen to those rumblings harmonize with geopolitics. If you’re stuck in analysis paralysis about what comes next² , I’ve shared below my most immediate conclusions.

1. Global trade will shift away from the US.

The scale, swiftness, and irrationality of the new American tariff position is extreme. Even if these new taxes only last for a few days or weeks, or never actually take effect, all global rational players will rapidly conclude (if they haven’t already):

• The US is not a reliable or trustworthy negotiator or trading partner.

• Rebuilding trust and stability in US-global affairs will require changes in political tone at the highest levels.

• The American political environment is equally unstable, and must choose a large-scale change in its direction and tenor before it can begin rebuilding trust.

In other words: the Project 2025 fever needs to break.

2. We don’t yet truly understand financial uncertainty.

There’s a stock market index called the Chicago Board of Exchange Volatility Index ($VIX ( ▲ 10.95% ) ). It’s sometimes called the fear gauge; it measures how much uncertainty exists in trading markets based on how options pricing is behaving. This is the 5-day VIX chart:

This is the 6-month VIX chart:

This is the past 20 years:

In words, there are only two other moments in the past 20 years that have been this unpredictable: COVID and the 2008 financial crisis. It’s currently higher than after 9/11. I feel pretty comfortable in saying this is all A Big Deal. (Also: you are completely justified if you feel like things are at another level right now–because they are!)

3. DOGE is the Ministry of Culture.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) represents more than a budget-cutting exercise. It’s an expression of an attitude and culture about the role of government, and how to wield and leverage power. It’s the inverse of “measure twice cut once.” And it’s seeping into general society and the private sector.

I’ve had more than a few conversations with people in different industries, careers, and level of experience. I see disturbing patterns emerging that reach far beyond the elimination of DEI. One of the intangible but critical roles of the President is to publicly demonstrate to society the difference between right and wrong; the challenges and rewards of shared democracy; the limits of hard power. Those lessons are being taught daily, with new incentives and rewards for behaviors you might not want for your children.

Next Steps

Now more than ever, it’s time to understand your values and whether they’re under assault. If they are, it’s time to mobilize. Capitol Bee will continue to focus on building tools and resources that help us overcharge activism; I hope you’ll continue to join us.

This Week: Veto Session Begins

On Thursday, the Kansas House and Senate are scheduled to return to Topeka to attempt veto override votes for eight bills (four House, four Senate) that were vetoed by Governor Kelly. My previous predictions on which bills would be vetoed were only so-so (~50%). Here’s what’s waiting in Topeka:

• House Bills:

  • Education:

    • 🐝🐝 HB 2033: Amends guidelines for at-risk educational programs. This safely cleared a veto-proof majority in both chambers, so I’d be surprised to see it falter now.

  • Healthcare and Public Health:

    • 🐝🐝 HB 2284: Mandates policy adoption for Medicaid managed care procurement.

    • 🐝🐝 HB 2217: Expand inspector general's powers over assistance programs. Only had a 2-vote buffer in the House, so maybe there could be some softness or vulnerability to citizen lobbying.

  • Commerce:

    • 🐝🐝 HB 2291: Establishes regulatory sandbox for innovation support.

• Senate Bills:

  • Taxes, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development:

    • 🐝🐝 SB 14: Establishes a continuous budget for state appropriations. This is the star of the show–it did not pass the House with a veto-proof supermajority, and it also happens to be a particularly destructive idea.

  • Healthcare and Public Health:

    • 🐝🐝 SB 29: Limits health officers' authority to prohibit public gatherings. This bill will essentially eliminate the ability for publicly enforced quarantines.

  • Government Organization, Elections, and Public Administration:

    • 🐝🐝 SB 5: Prohibits federal funds for election activities without approval.

    • 🐝🐝 SB 79: Amends compensation for Kansas legislators, including subsistence allowances.

Stay nimble! These next few weeks will be quite a ride.

1  To be clear: I don’t see my role as offering blanket advice. Everyone’s situation is unique. You should only keep the things that make sense for you and discard the rest.

2  Trust me, dear reader, I am intimately familiar with analysis paralysis.