Let's Talk About the Governor's Race

It's still over a year away, but it's probably time to start thinking about the 2026 Kansas Governor's race.

Author

Jason Anderson
July 10, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes

Come senators, congressmen / Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway / Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt / Will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin' / Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'

Table of Contents

Generational Consequences

If the past eight months have taught us anything, it should be consequences. 2024 was a very consequential year—not just the obvious trauma being chipped and pounded at by the White House, but also the downstream state-level impacts. Some Congresses and administrations are felt in our day-to-day lives, and there’s no shortage of evidence of how our November votes feel.

Some years are exceptionally consequential. 1935 saw the birth of Social Security and the National Labor Relations Board, and the permanence of the Federal Reserve and the FDIC. (It also marked the Nuremberg laws and the end of Jewish citizenship in Germany, the Black Sunday dust storm, assassination of a US Senator, and a general acceleration into World War II…) When they say “living through history,” this is what they mean.

Two implications to keep in mind:

  • We have endured these moments before; this will pass.

  • There’s no telling how long the chaos will endure, or what things look like on the other side.

These events all sound “bigger than Kansas,” and they are. But their shadows still stretch across the state:

  • Social Security → Kansas Welfare Act (1937). The state created a Board of Social Welfare to pull down the new federal dollars, shifting relief decisions from county poor-farms to Topeka. That entity is now the Kansas Department for Children and Families, and around 10% of the state’s budget.

  • Stronger unions → better pay scales. The post-1935 spike in union density was most visible at the Fisher Body/Chevrolet plant, helping lift urban wages relative to farm incomes.

  • Dust Bowl → Wichita aerospace boom. More than 75,000 Kansans—about 4 percent of the population—left the hardest-hit southwest counties after Black Sunday; many ended up in Wichita’s aircraft plants just as re-armament began.

  • Bank conservatism → FDIC skepticism. A majority of Kansas state banks initially refused deposit insurance, insisting their balance sheets were sound. That “plain-vanilla” culture still shows up today in how Kansas banks make loans.

Federal inflection points ricochet locally, sometimes for generations.

2026 Governor race consequences

Kansas will elect a new governor next year; incumbent Governor Kelly (D) is term-limited. National handicappers already rate the seat Lean R—the most vulnerable Democratic-held governorship on the 2026 map.

Knowing that the State Senate is locked in a Republican supermajority until 2028, there are two extremely consequential elections next year: will the Democrats break the 88-37 House supermajority, or will a Democrat retain the Governor’s office? Breaking the House requires a gain of five seats, which makes the Governor race even more critical.

Policy arena

What a Democratic win would likely mean

What a Republican win would likely mean

Medicaid

Keeps the issue alive; expansion is near-dead after the Big Beautiful Bill, but KanCare can still be defended.

KanCare and rural hospitals can expect to see Federal cuts fully implemented.

Abortion & reproductive policy

Continues gubernatorial veto on fetal-personhood, coercion-survey bills and similar measures.

Legislature likely to advance more fetal-rights bills (child-support-from-conception, tax credits for embryos).

Tax structure

Blocks new “flat-tax triggers” that automatically ratchet down income-tax rates.

Brownback-style tax cuts accelerate.

Public-school dollars vs. vouchers

Veto pen to stop expansion of private education savings accounts and other vouchers.

Republican super-majorities need only a signature to pass “education freedom” accounts.

Redistricting 2031

A Democratic governor would hold veto power over the next decade’s maps, forcing compromise or court maps.

Full GOP control could lock in super-majorities until 2041.

In short, the governor’s mansion is the last statewide check on a veto-proof GOP Legislature; flip it red and policy will move sharply right—especially on health coverage, school funding, and reproductive autonomy.

The 2026 Field (so far)

The 2026 gubernatorial field is beginning to take shape on both sides of the aisle. It’s an open-seat race that both parties see as winnable: Republicans are eager to reclaim the governorship, while Democrats hope to extend their hold on the office to check the conservative Legislature.

Democratic Contenders

Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park)

A two-term state representative and current state senator from Johnson County, Holscher was the first major Democrat to declare for governor. She’s running on a platform of “kitchen table” issues—supporting public schools, affordable healthcare, and economic relief for families. She highlights her suburban moderate credentials: she won a formerly Republican Senate district and even increased her winning margin in 2024 despite that year’s GOP (though in large part due to redistricting). A mother of three, she became politically active in response to school funding cuts, and she emphasizes stopping extremism. Holscher supports abortion rights, Medicaid expansion, and legalizing medical marijuana, and she calls for a fairer tax structure for households. Essentially, she promises to continue Laura Kelly’s approach of pragmatism and vetoing far-right legislation.

Holscher has framed her candidacy as necessary to “provide a check” on an increasingly extreme GOP legislature. She even said some Democrats urged her to sit this race out and let a Republican win (assuming they would self-destruct like Brownback, making it easier for Democrats later), but Holscher rejects that cynicism; she insists Kansas needs a Democrat now to prevent harm.

Sen. Dinah Sykes (D-Lenexa)

Sykes is widely expected to join the race, though she had not formally announced as of July 8. Currently the Senate Minority Leader, Sykes has a notable personal political journey: she was originally a moderate Republican from Johnson County who switched to the Democratic Party in 2018 in response to the extreme turn of the Kansas GOP.

As minority leader, she has been a leading voice for public education and Medicaid expansion. Sykes brings a reputation for bipartisan collaboration (as a former Republican) but also staunch opposition to hard-right initiatives; for example, she has been an outspoken critic of private school voucher schemes. If she runs, Sykes would likely position herself similarly to Holscher on issues like school funding and healthcare, with an emphasis on centrist appeal to suburban voters.

Her entry would set up a primary between two Johnson County Democrats (with overlapping donor and volunteer bases), which is notable because Kansas has not elected a governor from Johnson County in many decades (the last was in the 1970s). Sykes will have to decide if she can forge a broader coalition; her defenders might argue she could attract moderate Republican crossover votes given her background. Her consideration of a run (confirmed by statements that she is “having conversations” about a campaign) indicates that Democrats are weighing who is best positioned to hold the governorship in a challenging cycle.

Toland’s name often comes up as a potential Democratic contender. As the sitting Lieutenant Governor and Commerce Secretary under Laura Kelly, Toland has statewide executive experience and has been at the forefront of Kansas’ economic development efforts (for instance, helping land major business investments in the state). He is also the only Democrat besides the governor currently holding statewide office.

Analysts see Toland as a logical successor to Kelly; he could run on continuing the current administration’s economic and fiscal stewardship. However, Toland has been tight-lipped about his intentions. If he enters, Toland could broaden the primary field beyond Johnson County; he hails from rural Allen County and might appeal to voters beyond the KC metro. His focus would likely be on economic growth, jobs, and maintaining fiscal stability, and he could tout the record low unemployment and budget surplus achieved during his tenure. Toland may be weighing whether he can secure the nomination against known political fighters like Holscher and Sykes, and whether he can energize the Democratic base. His decision will significantly shape the Democratic primary.

Sen. Ethan Corson (D-Fairway)

Corson, a state senator and former executive director of the Kansas Democratic Party, is another Johnson County Democrat mentioned as a possible candidate. Thus far, Corson has not made any public moves toward a campaign, and he is less frequently discussed than Holscher or Sykes. At 43, Corson represents a younger generation and has a background in national Democratic politics (he served in the Obama administration’s Department of Commerce).

He has positioned himself in the Legislature as a pro-education, pro-labor Democrat in a suburban district. While Corson would bring energy and organizing experience, he lacks the statewide profile of the others. Unless the major candidates stumble or a faction of the party seeks an alternative, Corson may hold off on a gubernatorial bid this cycle. Still, by being mentioned, it’s clear Democrats have a bench of Johnson County figures, reflecting the party’s recent strength in the Kansas City suburbs.

At present, the Democratic field is centered on the legacy of Laura Kelly’s tenure: protecting public education funding, defending reproductive rights, cautious budgeting, and expanding healthcare if possible, all couched in a moderate, common-sense appeal. The challenge for Democrats will be convincing voters that a third consecutive Democratic term is needed as a bulwark against a far-right Legislature (and now far-right federal policies), despite Kansas’ Republican lean. Historically, Kansas has never had three Democratic gubernatorial wins in a row since gubernatorial terms became four years. Holscher and her peers are essentially arguing that this time might be different because the stakes are so high.

Republican Contenders

Over half a dozen candidates have already declared for the Republican primary, in various states of formal registration:

Schwab and Masterson are the two strongest campaigners in this list in a traditional sense, but the electorate’s a pretty spicy pickle right now…and the marketplace of ideas in a Kansas Republican primary won’t reward mainstream conservatism.

Overall, Republicans are favored to win back the governorship on paper, but the party is wrestling with its own divisions. They haven’t won a governor’s race since 2018, in part because moderate Republicans and independents have swung to Democrats like Kelly when GOP nominees were seen as too extreme. The 2026 GOP primary will test whether they course-correct by choosing a nominee with broader appeal…or double down on the hard-right trajectory.

Issues like taxes and school choice will dominate their debates, but all candidates will likely align in opposing Medicaid expansion and supporting abortion restrictions, at least in the primary. The Democratic nominee, meanwhile, will seek to assemble the coalition that carried Kelly to two victories: urban and suburban Democrats, moderate Republican crossovers (especially women concerned about education and abortion), and just enough rural support in places where issues like Medicaid and agriculture matter. With federal policies now cutting into healthcare and other areas, the stakes have only risen.