Forward Together?

Democrats in Johnson County and Kansas had a no good, very bad election night. Where does Kansas go next?

🐝 The Buzz

Thanks for checking out the inaugural issue of the Capitol Bee! The election is over, but the work continues. I hope you’ll continue to join me via this newsletter as I highlight key developments and trends impacting life in Kansas and Johnson County.

-Jason

A New Chapter

Let’s start with a confession: back in February when we kicked off my Kansas State Senate campaign, I had a lot more determination than campaign experience. I was profoundly grateful for everyone who came out to show their support (both then and now). Although I’d prepared remarks, my notes vanished in the moment; instead, I tried to speak from the heart—about why we were there and why it mattered. We gathered not just for an election, but because we care about this community, its schools, and its future.

That spirit is what led to Capitol Bee: a home for those committed to understanding, improving, and championing the politics and culture of Johnson County, Kansas, and the region at large.

We came within 2,500 votes of winning a state senate seat—close, yet not quite enough. In that near-miss, I rediscovered what truly matters: public resources devoted to public works, common ground over pure ideology, and our collective willingness to do the hard work of democracy. Those principles remain central as we turn our attention from campaigns to governance, from election cycles to the daily churn of policy and community engagement.

Fountain at Sar-Ko-Par Trails Park

Fountain at Sar-Ko-Par Trails Park, Lenexa

Election Analysis: Beyond Red and Blue

In the months following the August 2022 vote to preserve access to abortion care in Kansas, confidence was building amongst Kansas Democrats. If voters could mobilize in defense of reproductive rights, perhaps breaking the Republican supermajority in the state legislature was within reach?

As it turns out, not yet. Over 1.3 million Kansans voted in this year’s election, a new record; Trump increased his vote share from 56% in 2020 to 57% in 2024. Notably, Trump actually received 30,000 fewer votes in 2024 than before, indicating that the high turnout was not because of a Trump “wave.”

Johnson County legislative races went “blue” by a 13% margin overall1 , yet Democrats actually lost two House seats. Before Election Day, insiders in both parties predicted that Democrats might pick up Senate seats and break the Republican supermajority in the House. Instead, the opposite occurred: Republicans not only maintained their supermajority, but strengthened it.

Election Year

Democratic House Votes

Republican House Votes

Democratic Voter Margin

# Democratic House Seats

2022

56.8%

43.2%

13.6%

16 of 27 (59%)

2024

54.9%

45.1%

9.8%

14 of 27 (52%)

Local journalists have begun dissecting these results in earnest. For instance, a recent Kansas Reflector article notes that Republican candidates capitalized on last-minute, personality-driven campaigns that swayed previously unaffiliated voters. Big-money PACs and “dark money” groups outspent Democrats significantly, neutralizing well-intended but financially overmatched issue-focused messages.

What went wrong for Democrats? It wasn’t turnout; 73% of registered voters in Johnson County participated, mirroring 2016’s high engagement. The shift among unaffiliated voters toward Republican candidates this cycle surprised observers and countered the narrative of a steadily moderating Johnson County. Many voters remained skeptical of the Democratic brand, even as they supported some Democrats at the county level.

Structural factors like gerrymandered2 districts remain an uphill battle, but the willingness of voters to support Democrats on certain county-level positions shows there’s room for growth. Looking ahead, Democrats and allied groups must refine their messaging to unaffiliated voters and consider how to match the GOP’s relentless and well-funded outreach.

Precinct vote share for Presidential candidate by party. Darker red indicates stronger vote preference for Trump; darker blue indicates stronger preference for Harris. Boundary lines indicate the state Senate district boundaries.

The High-Stakes 2025 Legislative Session

If the 2024 election results left you feeling bruised, the 2025 legislative session might leave you breathless. With Republicans holding their strongest caucus since the early Brownback era, we can expect significant moves aimed at reshaping Kansas’s educational and economic policies3 . The debate over public education stands to become one of the session’s hottest flashpoints. A renewed push for vouchers—directing public funds toward private and parochial schools—threatens to erode the funding base of public school districts. Critical state-level support for special education and baseline student funding levels is due for renegotiation. Losing ground here would reverberate for a generation.

What’s driving this aggressive legislative posture? It’s partly ideological, partly strategic: this is a moment of maximum leverage for Republicans. Key conservative lawmakers see the 2025 session as an opportunity to lock in long-term structural changes—such as corporate tax breaks and more restrictive policies on reproductive health.

The undercurrent of judicial tension also looms large. Conservative legislators are expected to target the Kansas Supreme Court in an effort to soften the ground for new abortion restrictions. While voters rejected a full ban in recent years, incremental moves—such as curbing judicial independence—could pave the way for a future showdown over reproductive rights. Even if the Department of Education elimination talk at the federal level is more symbolic than substantive, the willingness of some factions to raise the possibility signals the lengths they are prepared to go.

State Capitol Building, Topeka

How to Stay Engaged

One lesson from 2024 is that information—and how it’s delivered—matters. Over the coming months, I’m working on new tools to help you stay informed and take meaningful action on issues you care about during the legislative session. Think streamlined ways to track upcoming votes, simplified guides on where your representatives stand, and templates to help you effectively reach out to your elected officials. By subscribing to Capitol Bee, you’ll be the first to know when these resources launch in the new year.

We can’t afford to rely solely on door-knocking and town halls anymore. Engagement in 2025 requires adapting to the digital tools and mass media at our disposal and making it easier for everyone—newly interested voters, long-time activists, curious neighbors—to plug into the civic process. I happen to benefit from a technology background, and am choosing to invest myself in creating resources that reduce friction and help you transform your values into influence.

Coming soon: Legislative Activism Toolkit

Beyond the Statehouse

While Topeka is the main stage, let’s not forget that politics and culture are shaped by countless local and national stories unfolding across the country. In the wake of the 2024 elections, new coalitions are forming; advocates are regrouping to figure out where they can best get involved.

Local school boards, reeling from hyper-partisan battles and outside money, are looking to find a more stable footing. Some are experimenting with community liaisons—neighbors who help bridge the gap between parents and policymakers. Others are seeking external partnerships with universities and nonprofits to foster civics education, hoping that more informed students will eventually become more engaged voters.

The cultural scene is evolving, too. We’re seeing new arts collectives, local journalism projects, and faith-based groups working together to highlight underrepresented voices. By spotlighting these developments in future issues of Capitol Bee, we’ll connect the dots between policy and everyday life, showing how decisions in the Statehouse ripple outward, shaping our shared world.

It’s Time to Renew Our Commitments

The 2024 election results stung, no doubt about it. But disappointment can be a powerful teacher! We now see the gap between what we hoped for and what we achieved—and we know we must step up our efforts. The challenges ahead in 2025—protecting public education, ensuring reproductive rights, preserving judicial independence, and pushing back on tax cuts for large corporations—are all going to demand more from us than casual engagement.

Capitol Bee is here to keep you informed and to alert you to opportunities for meaningful action. My goal is to make sure that every time I publish, there’s something useful and a unique perspective that makes it worth your time.

This is not just another newsletter; it’s a continuation of our conversation. Whether you volunteered during the last campaign, donated resources, or simply read along quietly, I hope you will subscribe so we can continue to learn from each other.

1  In total, 56% of state Senate votes within Johnson County were for Democratic candidates (vs 44% Republican). 57% of state House votes were Democratic as well, though if you exclude uncontested races that vote share falls to 52%. Combined vote totals: 57% for Democratic house and senate candidates, 43% for Republican candidates.

2  For the uninitiated: a gerrymandered district is one where the boundaries were drawn to “select” the voters contained, to give advantage to the party in charge of drawing the boundaries.

3  Just as I was preparing to publish this article, the 2025 legislative calendar was distributed to elected officials. The goal appears to be wrapped before Easter, an exceptionally early adjournment. Expect bills to move fast and with little time reserved for debate.