Eyes on the Prize

Ouroboros, Noah Gundersen

Table of Contents

• Winning At Any Cost

• Hard Truths (and what to do about them)

  • 1. Johnson County Isn’t Enough

  • 2. Issues Inform; Emotion Converts

  • 3. Advocacy Groups Must Prioritize Unity

  • 4. A Governor’s Campaign is 10x a State Legislativ …

  • 5. The Medium is the Message

• Forward, Together?

Winning At Any Cost

I’ve sat at this laptop for over an hour, trying to find something new to say about the Democratic race for Kansas Governor. For those who haven’t been following the day-by-day news, Sen. Ethan Corson announced his campaign for governor a couple of weeks ago, which followed Sen. Cindy Holscher’s earlier announcement of her campaign for governor. A robust who’s-who of Kansas Democrats have all had their names pulled into this story, including Governor Laura Kelly, Lt. Gov. David Toland, Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes, newly-announced candidate for Kansas Attorney General Chris Mann, and competing lists of endorsers to Team Ethan or Team Cindy.

It’s difficult to talk openly about all of this without stirring up some hard truths. To be clear: I have no horse in this race; the primary is nearly a year away, and there’s the entire 2026 state legislative session to get through first.

So, before I get all preachy about priorities, let’s recap some facts:

• Cindy Holscher announced her candidacy on June 12.

• Senate Minority Leader Dinah Sykes was interviewed and reported as considering her own campaign for governor on July 4. (She has not declared.)

• Ethan Corson announced his candidacy on July 22…about 6 weeks later.

• Governor Kelly endorsed Sen. Corson the same day as his announcement.

• Lt. Gov. David Toland announced he will not be running for any public office, on the same day as Corson’s and Kelly’s announcements.

• The Kansas Reflector reported on August 1 about…tensions between Holscher and Gov. Kelly, with allegations of strong-arm tactics between both camps about how the governor’s office might (or might not) influence the primary.

• Chris Mann, the 2022 Democratic candidate for Attorney General, announced his renewed campaign for the AG’s office on the 2026 ballot. (Other sources reported that the state and national Democratic party were lobbying for Mann to run for governor, but who’s to say?)

Hard Truths (and what to do about them)

I’m not a political consultant, and I have no formal relationship with any of the candidates or their campaigns. However, I am at least acquaintances with this full roster, which leads to delicate conversations; what I offer below is motivated by one strategic goal:

The Democratic Party must win the Kansas Governor’s race in 2026, at any cost.

Time will tell if there’s an opportunity to narrow the supermajority in the House, which would be a good-for-Democracy outcome, but the Governor’s office is of strategic importance.

It’s also strategic to national politics, to the network of US Governors (which have become the next line of defense against Trumpian policy), and to the National Democratic Party. The Kansas governorship is the most vulnerable Democratic executive office in the nation, and the Republican party at all levels will be laser-focused on that prize.

With that: let’s face our truths.

1. Johnson County Isn’t Enough

In 2022, Laura Kelly won reelection by a margin of under 22,000 votes. That’s less than 3% of non-Johnson County voters. Yes, nearly half of a winning candidate’s votes are going to come from Johnson and Sedgwick, but an urban/suburban ground game isn’t going to get the job done.

It’s also impossible to understate how much the non-urban majority of this state doesn’t like understand Johnson County. Our social, economic, and professional lives are fundamentally different. This goes both ways, and puts a lot of pressure on the candidates to find a message that can build bridges. Quickly.

Conclusion: Campaigns need to relax their assumptions about how to succeed.

2. Issues Inform; Emotion Converts

If the 2026 races are decided based on issues and policy, then Democrats will lose. (If issues drove outcomes, Trump would not be President.) This has been the most frustratingly difficult adjustment for me to personally make about today’s environment: while politics might be about governance and issues, campaigns and elections are about emotions and belief systems.

Yes, a candidate will have positions on issues. But it’s not the position that persuades a party-line voter to vote contrary to their history—it’s a higher-level belief or emotion.

Conclusion: We vote with our emotions, not our state budget proposals.

3. Advocacy Groups Must Prioritize Unity

With respect: if you’re an advocacy group focused on an issue that aligns with the Democratic Party, you already know who you need to support. You know that whatever imperfections the eventual nominee might have, you’re not going to flip your support to Ty Masterson or Scott Schwab. There’s no daylight there.

The best thing that any of us can do for these candidates between now and the primary is commit to supporting whomever becomes the general candidate.

There is no backroom handshake or platform message that could possibly justify withdrawing our support. If DNC Chair Ken Martin personally strong-armed a candidate out of the race to make room for somebody lesser, I will disagree and commit. We have no room for issues-based purity tests.

Conclusion: Embrace the eventual nominee on August 6, 2026.

4. A Governor’s Campaign is 10x a State Legislative Campaign

Every level of political campaigning has its own challenges and methods. A state house candidate can physically reach every door in their district, with enough time invested; time is more valuable than money. State senate and county-level races flip this, as it becomes impossible to directly engage with every voter. But the races are still too small to justify $1M+ campaign budgets, and so there’s more of a hybrid approach.

A Governor race will cost $8M-$10M, an order of magnitude more than they’ve ever had to raise or manage before. Additionally, the tactics that have made Holscher and Corson successful in past campaigns won’t scale up.

Conclusion: Leveraging Gov. Kelly’s legacy (and name recognition) and tapping in to national Democratic donors is critical.

5. The Medium is the Message

When Zohran Mamdani came seemingly out of nowhere to win the New York City Democratic primary for mayor (and continues to hold a polling advantage), pundits glowed with excitement about something new happening inside the Democratic party. Without writing an entire article about how Mamdani ran his successful campaign, two key things stand out that should be applicable in Kansas:

1. He chose the most widely distributed medium for his message, which is highly-polished vertical videos. Think TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts.

2. He adapted his content for the format: more listening to others, less soapboxing; and concise and focused messages.

While Kansas and NYC differ dramatically, Mamdani's strategy shows how innovative media engagement can quickly build widespread resonance.

Conclusion: The platforms we’ve used to engage with voters have been shifting for years, and have finally drifted away. We need to retool for the current environment.

Forward, Together?

I know that I have strong supporters of both Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson receiving this newsletter. By definition, that means some of you will be disappointed on August 5, 2026. Meanwhile, the GOP will already by carpet-bombing the victor.

It’s very early days—too early to judge the quality of each candidate’s campaign strategy. What I see so far, for what it’s worth, is Holscher doing what she does best (bottoms-up campaigning) and Corson doing what he does best (top-down fundraising, and connecting with the national party).

Both are authentic. Either approach could end up being what leads to victory next August. Hopefully, winning in August also means winning in November.